OMAHA (DTN) -- A lot can change in a year. This is the case with Midwest forage production and hay prices.

In July 2023, large portions of the Corn Belt were in different drought designations. The lack of moisture limited hay production, and hay prices continued to skyrocket.

Fast forward to July 2024. Moisture returned in large quantities in many areas, and forage production has been plentiful up to now. Hay prices, in turn, have declined rapidly with the sudden influx of production.

"It is a different market compared to last year at this time," Paden Lawler of HPL Auctions of Union, Iowa, told DTN.

FORAGE PRODUCTION UP, HAY PRICES DOWN

Once the moisture began to fall in May, so did hay prices, according to Lawler, who has a monthly hay auction nine months out of the year, minus the summer months of June, July and August. Hay prices held firm through April, but once everyone realized forage production was going to be high, prices began to fall in May, he said.

First cutting for both alfalfa and grass hay in central Iowa has increased tonnage about 30% to 50% from last year, he said. Second-cut alfalfa has been reported to be almost as good tonnage-wise as first cut, because of the large amount of moisture.

Lawler said good alfalfa hay in April was in the $170- to $180-per-bale range, and now the same market is in the $80-to-$82/bale area. Grass hay was bringing about $140 to $150/bale in April, and now the same market is at $70/bale, he said.

There were even some reports of small square bales only bringing $1.50 to $2/bale this spring on hay auctions, he said.

"With the increased production this spring, we almost overloaded the hay market with too much hay, which caused the prices to drop so fast," he said.

Karl Jacobson, a farmer and cow-calf producer from Concordia, Kansas, said the increased moisture began for his home area of north-central Kansas this winter and continued through spring and now summer. A year ago, he was struggling to raise any forage and was buying expensive alfalfa hay to feed his cattle. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

The forage production situation is considerably different a year later. Farm ponds are full of water, and forage production is thriving, thanks to the additional moisture, he said.

Jacobson said he is still a little short on alfalfa but did plant some annual forage in the form of Sudan grass, and that crop has yielded good.

"We certainly have a lot of prairie hay to put up this growing season," Jacobson told DTN.

HAY PRICE STAY LOW?

Lawler said he does not believe hay prices will move much from these lower levels now because of the sudden increase in forage production. A look at the U.S. Drought Monitor map (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…) shows very little drought in much of the Corn Belt and nearly nothing in and around Iowa.

This means nearly every area of the Midwest is going to have above-average forage production, he said. This is not usually the case, as most growing seasons will have some areas that are drier than others, and these areas can take up some of the hay produced in other wetter regions.

"There is usually drought somewhere, but this year that doesn't appear to be the case," Lawler said. "So, all of this hay really doesn't have anywhere to go."

Lawler said many farmers with livestock did not enjoy buying expensive hay in recent years, and there was probably a little more alfalfa acres planted in his area of central Iowa. These additional acres are now seeing large yields with the moisture, which will help hay stocks stay high, he said.

University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension educator Ben Beckman, located in Hartington, Nebraska, said his area of northeastern Nebraska saw a typical amount of forage acres planted this spring. Some additional acres were seeded in the past few springs.

This additional production might help to explain why we have seen hay prices decline so rapidly, he said. When corn and soybean prices are higher, typically, we see fewer alfalfa acres and when hay prices are higher, we generally see more alfalfa acres, he said.

Despite the increase in moisture, Beckman reminds producers with livestock grazing to be cautious not to overgraze forage resources. It could take stressed grass a few years to fully recover, so limiting grazing would be a wise strategy.

WATCH HAY QUALITY

Another item producers should keep an eye on this growing season is the quality of the forage being produced. Increased moisture is good for production but can lead to quality concerns, especially for those selling hay.

"I would suggest you send in hay samples to a lab just to know exactly what you have for forage," Beckman said.

DTN recently wrote about issues with hay quality. See https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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