An active storm track through the middle of the country has been able to bring some areas of the Midwest out of drought and reduce it for portions of the Southern Plains. Soil moisture in these areas is rated very favorably. However, that is the only consistent zone in the country that is receiving good precipitation. Soil moisture maps from various sources indicate major problems in portions of the Plains, South, and Southeast.

Since early March, the weather pattern has been very favorable for the middle of the country. From central and eastern Texas up through the Great Lakes, storms have been able to bring through lots of rainfall. It has meant some areas of flooding and severe weather, but also improvements to drought and soil moisture. During the last six weeks, drought has all but been eliminated in the Midwest, and significant improvement has been made to parts of eastern Oklahoma and central Texas. You can find these improvements on the National Drought Mitigation Center website here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/….

The cost of those improvements, though, come from drought increases for large areas of the Plains, South and Southeast. Drought has worsened from southern South Dakota through the Texas Panhandle. Colorado has seen the worst degradation in this region where drought has worsened by three to four categories. Though storm systems have moved through these areas, they have been reluctant to produce rainfall. Outside of a few streaks or batches of light showers, it has barely rained here since early March. In some cases, there has been less than an inch of rainfall during the last six months. Skipping over this area and producing rain from the southeastern Plains has produced widespread improvement across the middle of the country, but it has stopped there.

Across the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast, passing systems have produced sub-optimal rainfall. Very few areas in these regions have seen more than 2 inches of rain in the last six weeks, roughly 4 inches below normal. Early tillage and above-normal temperatures have sped up the loss of moisture from soils, which are now running at some of the lowest on soil moisture levels according to satellite-derived soil moisture.

Unless the storm track changes to get more rainfall in more areas of the country, drought conditions will likely get worse. There are some indications for minor changes that would produce more precipitation in some of these areas through early May.

The Central Plains are currently forecast to get a system to move through on April 26. Forecasts so far are targeting Nebraska and the surrounding areas with the heaviest precipitation, but leaves out the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as much of southeastern Colorado and Kansas. The system could increase precipitation along its cold front for the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys early next week, but that is uncertain. Models are unsure how to develop this front. But one system will not be enough to significantly increase soil moisture.

The lack of soil moisture is already hurting winter crops in these areas. Hard red winter wheat conditions have all fallen during the last month. During the last week, good-to-excellent ratings have fallen to some of the lowest ratings in several years. Kansas, the country's leading producer, stands at just 24% good to excellent. Poor-to-very poor conditions outrank good-to-excellent conditions in Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. You can find some updates to crop conditions as reported by DTN here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Though the drier soils have allowed for faster planting, early emergence and growth for plants across these areas are hurting. A major change to the weather pattern is needed to provide more frequent bursts of heavy rain during the next several weeks.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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