It is a long and winding road, but we are getting there. 2025 is quickly growing old and we will welcome in a new year before you know it. In Ontario, we wish for a lot of things, but certainly in 2026 many of us will be looking for consistent rainfall throughout the year. If there was one recurrent theme in much of the province this year, it was a lack of rainfall in July, August and September which hurt corn and soybean yields across the province. Let's hope 2026 has timely rains.

Of course, it wasn't quite that way for everybody, it never is -- somebody is outside of the zone and that's where I found myself in 2025. I got all the timely rains with record corn yields, and I hope to do even better in 2026. Farming is a long game. As I've said many times, risk management never grows old.

Having said that, March corn a year ago was approximately $4.42 a bushel. As I write this on Christmas Day, we have March corn at $4.50 a bushel. So, even though we've had an eventful year, we still are only winding up five cents higher than we were a year ago. On the contrary, the nearby January soybean contract is $10.62 a bushel and last year it was $9.88 a bushel. So, we are doing a little bit better on the soybean side although we're down close to a dollar since the middle of October. I guess I will ask readers if we feel we have accomplished a whole bunch over the last year on the market side of things?

It is easy to answer that question by saying, "But not a lot happened." For instance, the market opportunities for this year came along in October during the glut of harvest where soybeans seemed to lead the way based on rumours about Chinese buying that still haven't happened. It was a year where there wasn't much opportunity to market grain whatsoever, even going back a year ago. However, even though there was hardly any opportunity during the year, they were still a couple instances where the market gave us opportunity. It was brief and fleeting, but it was there. For instance, some new crop corn could be contracted for more than $6 a bushel for fall delivery and soybeans ended up being worth more than $15 at harvest time.

It wasn't the easiest year to capture market opportunities which were strikingly higher than the year before. As I look out into 2026, that's exactly what I'm looking for, a lot higher grain prices. I do that, of course, because I've been bullish grain for 40 years. However, I'm well-aware our South American friends are producing another record crop and if we all have our druthers in North America, we'll try to do that, too. We are caught in the vicious cycle of agricultural efficiency.

Many would argue that it's a sign of the times, with grain almost everywhere. See the wheat market for that constant reminder. We know our South American friends always have a lot of soybeans under their blue tropical skies. However, it is also true that U.S. corn is seeing record exports, which can only be cajoled as a very good thing. For instance, USDA in its latest musings of 2025-26 and exports are looking at about 3.2 billion bushels (bb). This is above the 2.72 bb which were shipped out last year. Also, if you look at the export pace at the end of November, this corn export number translates into an even higher number possibly over 4 bb. We will see how it all plays out, but it looks like corn is in a long-term bullish position.

One thing I always like to look at is the cost of commercial carry. At the present time, the May 2026/July 2026 corn future spread covers a bullish 28% calculated full commercial carry. Keep in mind that this represents the total cost, storage and interest to hold bushels in a commercial facility.

What it's telling us is that merchandisers are growing increasingly nervous about getting corn supplies during this period from May to July 2026. Get a hiccup in the market, and prices go much higher. However, keep in mind that we must realize that even a year ago we had a very similar market structure. We ended up trading sideways on corn almost the whole year.

Keep in mind, as we go into 2026, our geopolitical world will surely change. There are musings at the end of 2025, and as we go into 2026, peace might break out in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, we know as Canadians we still have our host of problems -- canola with China and almost everything else with the United States. The Canadian-United States-Mexico agreement is being reviewed in 2026 and it certainly will probably cause more rankle with the United States and all that represents. It's hard to say where it's all going to go, but of course it doesn't look good from here.

As 2025 ends and 2026 begins, here we are once again. Many of us have been in this position before and we will be in it again. The challenge for Ontario and Quebec farmers as we head into 2026 will be much the same as it ever was -- to stay the course, watch the market carefully, and recognize opportunity when it briefly shows itself. There will be plenty of noise along the way, from weather to politics to trade, but none of that changes the basic reality that farming is a long game. In the end we'll succeed, but it surely will be an adventure getting there.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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