It's old news to everyone at this point that the cattle complex has recently been under in an anxious state. Trying to keep track of all the negative pressures looming against the market feels like a full-time job. We try to monitor the situation in Iran and how it's affecting oil prices and the greater equity markets, while keeping our eyes and ears open for any developments that may surface regarding the potential union strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado.

While those talking points have been well stressed, the domino effect of some of these stressors needs to be further explained, which is what we are going to discuss here today.

1 -- The potential plant strike in Greeley, Colorado, is the first matter of business we need to address, as it has many facets. It's been noted if the labor union and JBS can't reach an agreement in coming days, union laborers will begin their strike starting Monday, March 16, and continue until a contract can be agreed upon. The three main domino effects of this potential strike include beef prices, the cash market and front-end supplies of market-ready beef. We've already seen in recent trading days an unusual uptick in boxed beef prices, as seasonally the spring rally doesn't begin until prime grilling season in late April or early May. As retailers brace themselves for tightened supplies (beyond what we're currently seeing with the historically small cow herd), boxed beef prices have been closing higher, even though it's against the seasonal norm. For example, on Tuesday afternoon (March 10), choice cuts closed $3.38 higher at $394.67 and select cuts closed $3.15 higher at $386.77.

Then, one must think about how this could have a ripple effect on the fed cash cattle market. With the strike looming, it's already been said packers aren't going to be as aggressive in this week's fed cash cattle market as next week's throughput will likely be reduced. Over the last three weeks, cash prices have moved lower, but this will likely only expand the downward pressure.

Further down the road from this week's implications and even next week's consequences, we must ponder how this will affect the cash market moving through the remainder of spring and into summer. Depending on how long the strike lasts, logically this is going to build up front-end supplies and hinder feedlot managers' ability to push the cash market higher.

2 -- The second factor we need to discuss is the greater market implications of the war with Iran. The Trump administration has stated this isn't going to be an ongoing war like we've seen in years past and the Epic Fury mission will end soon. In the meantime, it has caused some short-term pressure on oil prices and the equity markets at large, which, of course, trickles down with negative effects on the cattle sector. Until the market can rest assured this isn't going to become a situation like we've experienced with Iraq, which lasted for over eight years, there's going to be some level of anxiousness laced throughout the marketplace. The country wants to believe the president's comments that the war won't last long, but also knows, historically speaking, the Middle East hasn't been a place where our missions have been short.

I understand it's frustrating these negative factors have begun to weigh heavily against the market. Ideally the complex would be positioning itself to reach its spring rally. As I've stressed before, unfortunately, the cattle complex doesn't just worry itself over cattle-related things. As the world seems to move faster now than ever before, everything is more closely interwound, and more times than not that seems to weigh heavily against the cattle complex. As always, remember your cattle are an asset up until the time you choose to liquidate the asset. You hold the power of when you choose to buy and sell. Last but certainly not least, even with the slight bobble in price, Wednesday's prices are still historically high -- don't forget to keep a long-term historical perspective.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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