El Nino -- the term used to describe widespread warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean around the equator -- is a prominent weather headline feature as we continue in the 2026 spring season. That's because the ocean waters are showing a consistent and sustained warming trend toward above-normal values, which are expected to have a significant impact on weather conditions later this year.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center noted in early April that "A transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Nino is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026."

Warmer equator-region Pacific Ocean waters cause changes in the oceanic trade wind patterns that can have strong influences on crop weather around the world. In the United States, El Nino's presence brings the prospect of mild weather and above-normal precipitation during the summer months; very favorable overall for row-crop moisture.

On the other side of the Pacific, the story is far different. In Australia, El Nino relates to some big declines in wheat production. That's not a minor detail: Australia's wheat production amounts to just 3% of the total world harvest, but it usually accounts for between 10% and 15% of the world wheat trade. During the past 60 years, here are some of the declines in Australia's wheat harvest when El Nino is in effect: 30% in 1965; 21% in 1977; 46% in 1982; 46% in 1994; 16% in 1997; and 36% in 2023.

In many of these years, dryness was a major factor in the lower wheat output, due to the El Nino-influenced jet stream pattern in the Pacific Ocean literally taking moisture away from Australia and sending it toward the Americas -- especially the U.S. Dry conditions have been most noted in the wheat areas of eastern Australia, and the lack of precipitation in the high-production Murray-Darling Basin is striking. According to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, "In the Murray-Darling Basin ... rainfall averaged over all El Nino events since 1900 was 28% lower than the long-term average." The Murray-Darling Basin contains an estimated 40% of Australia's farms, according to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. So, a sharp drop in rainfall translates to a significant impact on agricultural output.

Australia long-range forecasts already suggest dryness. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology's soil moisture forecast out to June indicates a general grade of "average" for soil moisture across the nation. However, eastern Australia's outlook is for "below" to "much below" compared to average. Even though June is in the Southern Hemisphere winter, there is the hint that Australia's wheat will have limited soil moisture when it moves into its full grain-producing phases because of the impact of El Nino.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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