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Ag Weather Forum
John Baranick 4/17 9:18 AM
A very strong cold front is moving through the country over the next few days. While the main concern on Friday, April 17, will be severe weather, the extremely cold temperatures following behind the front will lead to frosts and freezes for large portions of the Plains and Midwest this weekend. This strong front has already moved through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, which saw temperatures dive 30 to 50 degrees and accumulating snow, especially in the Canadian Prairies. That front now is getting into the Upper Midwest and Central Plains and will be the focus for strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday morning through the evening. A few thunderstorms have started to develop at 8 a.m. CDT across southern Minnesota, but as the sun rises even more, storms are forecast to erupt along the cold front from Minnesota and Wisconsin down to central Texas on Friday afternoon. Early storms will be isolated, and the environment will be rich with heat and moisture, turning these storms into big threats for tornadoes and extremely large hail. According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), those threats are maximized in two areas. One ranges from eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois and across southern Wisconsin, with another zone from north-central Oklahoma into northwestern Missouri. However, all areas along the SPC's risk areas are at risk of all hazards. The tornado threat is greatest in the Upper Midwest zone and some of these could be long-tracked strong tornadoes. As the afternoon wears on, storms are likely to form lines and there could be multiple segments along and ahead of the cold front. That would turn most of the threats into damaging winds. Upper-level winds may align to produce bowing segments along the line capable of extremely strong, hurricane-force wind gusts. That threat is most likely from southeastern Kansas through northern Illinois for late afternoon and especially this evening. Behind the cold front, temperatures are significantly colder. Morning temperatures are in the 10s and 20s Fahrenheit across the Prairies and Northern Plains, while temperatures ahead of the front are in the 60s and 70s. That contrast supports the severe thunderstorms but also provides a massive change in weather for the weekend. Widespread frosts and some freezes are expected down through the southwestern Plains for both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The coldest air will be on Saturday morning, where morning temperatures may fall into the 20s F as far south as the far western Oklahoma Panhandle and temperatures down to freezing will be noticeable into the Texas Panhandle and central and eastern Kansas up through Wisconsin. Though temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday morning, frosts are still likely across Texas Panhandle through Kansas in the Plains. Farther east, frosty temperatures will be found throughout most of the Midwest on Sunday and Monday, though it will be borderline near the Ohio River. Temperatures will quickly rise Sunday in the Plains and Monday and Tuesday in the Midwest, making this a short burst of extreme cold. But for those with growing plants in these areas, it may make sense to cover them after the storms roll through. Frosts could damage trees and agricultural crops as well.
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