It's been a tough spring so far in typically high-production winter wheat areas of the U.S. Great Plains. Central and southwestern portions of the region have seen a significant warm and dry pattern, with lower production potential.

Average temperatures during March and through the first two weeks of April in the primary Plains winter wheat areas were generally 6 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. That very warm environment has certainly boosted the wheat crop in its post-dormancy development. At the end of April, top winter wheat production state Kansas logged 43% of its wheat crop in the heading stage, almost four times the 11% average heading rate.

And that fast development is getting meager support on the precipitation scene. Precipitation over a 60-day period from the end of February through the final weekend of April was mostly no better than 25% of normal. (Temperature and precipitation data analyzed by the high Plains Regional Climate Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.)

Winter wheat crop conditions reflect the influence of this warm and dry situation. The Kansas winter wheat crop, in addition to the fast-heading pace of 43%, also has a combined poor-to-very-poor crop condition rating of 41% as of the final weekend of April. This places the 2026 Kansas wheat crop into a low-production category occupied by the years 2022 and 2023. In 2022, the USDA NASS Kansas wheat crop rating at the end of April showed a poor-to-very-poor rating total of 40%. The year 2023 was even more harsh, with a total of 64% of the Kansas wheat crop in the poor-to-very-poor category at the end of April.

The two low-rating years followed up with reduced Kansas wheat production. In 2022, Kansas winter wheat production totaled 244.2 million bushels (mb), 33% below the 364-mb output for the state's wheat crop in 2021. Then came 2023, with production sliding to 201.3 mb -- 18% below 2022, and 45% below the 2021 crop size.

Now comes 2026 with its quick heading pace, difficult weather and low crop ratings. The implied threat to production with the unfavorable weather pattern and impact on crop conditions cannot be ignored. And, these conditions follow a good winter wheat production year in Kansas, with almost 347 mb, close to the size of the 2021 crop.

The low production of the Kansas winter wheat crop in 2022 and 2023 also point to the influence of La Nina, the equatorial cool-water phase of the Pacific Ocean. La Nina has a strong correlation to dry conditions in the major U.S. Plains winter wheat areas, and both 2022 and 2023 were years with a robust La Nina in place.

This year, official assessments point to La Nina having ended; however, a weak but persistent La Nina was in place during the winter and into early spring, which was unfavorable for winter wheat coming out of dormancy. The Pacific is showing a brisk transition to the warm-water El Nino phase, with more variable temperatures and higher chances of precipitation. The actual onset of these conditions, and their timing in relation to the wheat crop's advanced state, will be key features, with only a few weeks until harvest.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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