Drought has been a growing issue in much of the Plains, South, and Southeast this spring, but the forecast for this week is producing periods of widespread precipitation for those areas.

The weather pattern has been busy this spring, but only in a narrow zone during the last six weeks. From central Texas up through the Great Lakes, heavy rain has improved soil moisture and reduced or eliminated drought. But outside of this zone, drought has been a growing problem. Much of the rest of the Plains, Deep and Mid-South, and Southeast have had relatively little precipitation. Rainfall deficits have been increasing dramatically and drought categories have increased to D2-3 across a large portion of these regions. Pockets of D4 drought, the most intense category of drought, cover portions of northern Arkansas, southern Georgia and northern Florida. You can find the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor map here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/….

However, some relief is on the way as an active week of weather is on tap across the country. It actually started this past weekend as widespread thunderstorms formed along a cold front that moved through the Mid-South for Friday and Saturday. Widespread areas of 1-3 inches of rainfall were noted, though severe weather was a problem as well. Another system moved into the Plains and brought waves of showers to portions of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday. Strong thunderstorms dropped heavy rain in these areas as well, easing some of the drought.

That system is now moving through the Midwest where we are seeing more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The severe potential is maximized today near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Thunderstorms have already produced some areas of heavy rain today, as well as a few wind and hail reports. And, as of 9 a.m. CDT, severe thunderstorm watch boxes were active across portions of Missouri, Illinois and far western Kentucky. But this is just getting started. The cold front to the system will sweep through the Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening, likely resulting in another round or wave of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in these same areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe weather for southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois, and all hazards will be possible. Find the latest updates from the SPC here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/….

This system will move northeast through Lake Superior tonight and into Ontario, Canada, for Tuesday. But this is only one of several systems and disturbances that will move through the country. The storm track will be pushed southward with each system, with the next one developing over Oklahoma on Tuesday and moving northeast through the Ohio Valley and the Northeast into Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along and south of the track of this system, which includes those drier areas in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well as around Arkansas. The severe threat is not as intense on Tuesday as it is on Monday, but will again include all hazards, especially around Arkansas.

The cold front to this system will continue to produce showers across Texas and the Gulf Coast for Wednesday and Thursday, adding more rainfall to those drought areas there.

One more system is expected to develop for late this week. It will start to get showers into the southwestern Plains late Thursday or early Friday, following the cold front eastward across the Gulf Coast for the weekend. Including the lingering showers from Thursday, areas of western Kansas, eastern Colorado, south through west Texas will pick up on some widespread and moderate-to-heavy rainfall.

Typically, this region sees isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms for accumulating rainfall, sometimes coming with heavy bursts and severe weather. This is more likely to be a longer-duration light-to-moderate rainfall event that would quickly increase soil moisture with very little runoff. That bodes well for winter wheat in the region that has been suffering hot and dry conditions for most of the spring.

Though the storm track will continually shift southward, smaller disturbances will still bring showers across northern areas throughout the week. When added all together for the week, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are looking likely across most of the driest areas east of the Rockies outside of Nebraska and western Kansas, where showers will be spottier. Where multiple storms overlap, amounts of 2-3 inches will be more likely. That includes northeastern Texas through northern Alabama as well as in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms may push totals over 4 inches, which may cause flash flooding in some of these drought areas.

Though drought reduction is looking likely with this week's forecast, rainfall deficits across the region exceed the expected rainfall. Drought will still be a problem and needs a more prolonged, active weather pattern to significantly reduce the drought, like we have seen during the last six weeks in the Midwest.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.