Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in the February issue of Progressive Farmer.

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In the December issue of Progressive Farmer, I discussed a possible acreage scenario for the 2026-27 marketing year and predicted based on very early circumstances that soybean acreage in the United States would grow in 2026 by roughly 3% from 2025, specifically to between 83 million and 84 million planted acres. Since China agreed in principle to return to a "normal" degree of soybean purchases from the U.S. during the next three years, the market has been preoccupied with whether such demand is possible.

However, with 17-month highs in soybean prices rapidly evaporating, and early profitability projections for 2026 continuing to paint a challenging landscape for producers, the better topic to discuss may in fact be whether the supply side of the U.S. market can even accommodate this "return to normalcy" in regard to export demand.

Let's assume for a moment that USDA is correct in its most recent balance sheet, and that 2025-26 soybean ending stocks swing to a six-year high of 350 million bushels (mb) amid a 13-year low in export demand. During the past five years, China has accounted for roughly 53% of U.S. soybean exports, meaning the "promised" 900 mb of purchases by China could reasonably be expected to be part of a 1.7-billion-bushel (bb) export program in 2026-27, 125 mb higher than the latest USDA forecast for the current marketing year.

As for domestic soybean demand, assuming the crush industry continues its recent rate of growth to 2.65 bb of usage by 2026-27, along with an average degree of seed and residual demand of 110 mb, would, together with exports, suggest 4.09 bb of soybeans will need to be produced to meet demand (assuming 350 mb of beginning stocks along with 20 mb of imported soybeans).

Regarding supply, if soybean area in 2026 only grows marginally to 81 million harvested acres, and the national average yield equals 2025 at 53 bushels per acre (bpa), then carryout stocks for the 2026-27 season would fall to just above 200 mb, the lowest since 2015-16. Even if acreage were to land another 2 million higher, to 83 million harvested, the same equation still returns lower year-over-year stocks of 307 mb.

By this math, it would take an increase of 3.4 million harvested acres with a 53-bpa average yield for U.S. soybean stockpiles to expand year over year, leaving little margin of error for production.

Now, bear in mind that the above exercise does include a few behind-the-scenes assumptions. Factors such as Brazil's crop size, biofuel policy, Chinese soybean demand as well as U.S.-China relations all play a significant role. As alluded, you'll also note the sensitivity of the balance sheet to soybean yield, as well, as just 1 bpa in either direction is north of 80 mb added or subtracted from the bottom line.

There is still a lot of time to go until harvest 2026 in the U.S. and many moving parts to consider. A major function of the futures market is to perceive and efficiently factor supply and demand risk into prices, and I can certainly understand the market's immediate attention going to factors such as potential for yet another record crop out of Brazil to go along with a painfully slow start for U.S. exports. However, as the U.S. planting season approaches, I am not sure current prices (at the time of writing this in mid-January) adequately incentivize producers to plant "normal" soybean acreage in 2026, if the plan is indeed for a return to "normal" export demand by 2027.

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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