Frequent bursts of cold air are threatening to make planting windows in the Canadian Prairies shorter this planting season. Though periods of warmer weather have come through at times, especially for southern Alberta, and average temperatures are rising anyway, soil temperatures have been slow to rise, and snow covers large portions of the north.

Cold air has been a mainstay over Canada for much of the spring. Upper-level wind patterns have continued to supply the Prairies with frequent bursts of below-normal air from the Arctic and northern Canada. Warmer air from the United States has infiltrated at times, but these bursts of warmth have been rather short-lived.

A very sharp cold front is sinking south through the region on April 15-16. Some accumulating snow is occurring with the front as well, but extremely low temperatures are following in behind it. Temperatures are not forecast to rise above freezing on Thursday or Friday, reversing the trend of rising soil temperatures.

Morning soil temperatures are still sitting below 4 degrees Celsius (40 degrees Fahrenheit) for almost the entire region, despite some warmth in recent days. Northern areas covered in snow are certainly below freezing. That leaves some significant progress to be made before producers go out in full force to work their fields and begin planting.

But despite the seasonal rise in average temperature, shots of cold air appear likely for the next several weeks. Even as the upper-level pattern changes at the end of April into early May, the supply of colder air seems ready to track from Alaska, through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern U.S. It will not be a consistent march of colder air, but it will lead to the possibility of more snow, as well as the continued slower-than-normal rise in soil temperature heading into planting season in May.

Depending on how long this cold-air setup lasts, there could be some significantly short planting windows across the region this season, which are already short. For most of the region, the month of May is the primary planting window. If the first week or two of that month is cold, then planting may be delayed until warmer conditions arrive, or the threat for heavy snow subsides.

On the other hand, this season does have much better soil moisture than in some previous seasons. An active weather pattern both in winter and early spring have allowed soils to recover from last year's significant drought. Though the snow needs to melt, very few areas in the region are experiencing drought. The only significant areas are in southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan, south of Highway 1. That should allow for good growth once planting begins.

A reduction in wildfires can also be expected this year. It has been very common for fires and smoke to be a challenge to those living in the region throughout the growing season. Last year was particularly tough across the region, though not as damaging as back in 2023. Some statistics on wildfires can be viewed here: https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/…. But the reduced drought coverage, especially in the woodland areas of northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, should limit the overall impact of fires this year.

However, the long-range forecast heavily depends on a developing El Nino. El Ninos can have some dire consequences for drought development during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. It is not a guarantee to occur, but is favored. Given a shorter-than-normal planting window, there are some significant threats to agriculture producers in the Prairies this year despite the current lack of drought.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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