Call it the "Covfefe" effect. The last couple of days have been pretty exciting in the soybean market because we've seen just under a $0.50 rise in the price of soybeans in the last two trading sessions. It's hard to tell why we have such a rise in the price of soybeans because on the ground nothing really has changed.

However, last week President Donald Trump mentioned increased soybean buying in one of his social media posts and, of course, that's what the trading algorithms listen to. "Covfefe" refers to an unfinished tweet he sent out during the first Trump term. It didn't mean anything and that's almost what it was like the last two trading sessions with soybeans. Needless to say, the price of soybeans went up almost $0.50.

On cue, I heard from an acquaintance who told me he sold 5,000 bushels of soybeans. I don't know what the intent was, other than to get my blessing or to inform me that he was waiting until soybeans went up 50 cents to sell. Of course, soybeans might go up 75 cents next week and I won't hear from him. The bottom line is by selling when he did, he made $2,500 versus a couple of days before. It's still below the high from last October. I responded by telling him I'm holding out for $30 soybeans.

That episode says many things but at the core of it is the concept of risk. As farmers, we risk a lot. Who else do you know that spends several hundreds of thousands of dollars every spring hoping that something might grow by fall, exposing it to three or four different seasons. It's all about risk management as I've said so many times in this column.

I was thinking about that today as I reviewed my standing market orders that are sitting at my buyer. I'm still hopeful that they'll hit someday, but a review is always a good thing. New crop seems like a dream now with so much snow outside my window but eventually it will come around. Until that time, each day represents an opportunity for me to manage risk and sell grain. However, I never think of it as a gambling environment. An argument can be made that farmers are the biggest gamblers in the land with so much at stake.

I think it's pretty easy to assume that farmers think of themselves as risk managers and not gamblers, although in a bad year caused by weather, it might feel like the latter. The idea of risk has evolved outside of agriculture, and it surrounds us every day. I'm talking about sports gambling which can live in your phone or predictive markets like Polymarket, where buyers and sellers can buy shares on the outcome of real-world events. Think the USDA will print an 18-billion-bushel corn crop next year? On Polymarket, you may be able to take a position on that.

Keep in mind that I'm not judging here. It is no secret that I loathe gambling for what I consider obvious reasons. Yes, I am sure that even on these pages I have said that farmers are some of the biggest gamblers when it comes to the risks we take. The key thing is that we are solidly working at the risk management of our position versus making a wild bet and having it go astray.

There are all kinds of dangers when it comes to the present-day sports gambling industry but also there are issues with regards to the predictive markets such as Polymarket. What's it going to take to prevent people with access from taking a position in a predicted market on the USDA's position in front of major reports? Let's just say that would take farmers' risk management to a whole new level.

I don't think there was any of that chicanery in the latest move by soybeans popping up just under $0.50 in the last two trading sessions. However, if you could consider the "Covfefe" effect, maybe you would have a second thought. Simply put, there are soybeans everywhere in Brazil, much cheaper at Brazilian ports than New Orleans. However, it is what it is, I hope soybeans go up another 50 cents in the next two trading sessions.

We know it doesn't work quite that way. The bottom line is, as farmers, we might think we're gamblers at times, but in our realm risk management surrounding our prices and our costs are all encompassing. We hedge, we tile, we do preventative maintenance, we pour over data to hone variety selection -- all in our unending attempt to minimize the risk we face. I still want $30 for my soybeans. The challenge is to pounce on opportunities. If $30 soybeans ever show up, I promise you I won't hesitate. Until then, I'll keep doing what farmers have always done, manage what I can control, price when it makes sense, and leave the covfefe to the wind.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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