It is certainly shaping up to be a cold week. I know, this is Canadian winter and it's supposed to be this way. However, if we could dream a little bit and think about what's going on in South America, we might be in some harvest fields. This week the Brazilian soybean crop is approximately 3% harvested with the big state of Mato Grosso expected to be 13 to 15% harvested this weekend. At the present time, there is almost a $1 advantage or discount for Brazilian beans versus American soybeans on the March contract. China, of course, is benefiting from all this, having imported 112 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans mostly from South America last year.

We will see what happens next. I brought you those tidbits as market information because this week I wanted to write about something I call "daily market intelligence". If you have read this column in the past, or if you have read my commodity commentary for the Grain Farmers of Ontario, you know that I talk about "daily market intelligence" as a necessary requirement for our individual marketing plans. I think about it all the time, but it became clear to me this week that maybe my readers did not. In other words, maybe I should talk about it. Maybe I should let you know what I think "daily market intelligence" is.

I think of it as what you do during the day to update yourself on what's going on in the grain markets. For me, because I write about grain markets, it's pretty thorough. For instance, not only do I depend on DTN's Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery and Senior Analyst Dana Mantini, but others in the industry. Each day, I read and listen to what Rhett and Dana write about. They are also featured at the end of the day in the DTN Closing Market Video. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…) I watch every day and I post the highlights on my X feed at night. It always gives me valuable insights on what grain futures markets are doing.

It doesn't end there with me; in fact, generally speaking, that recap at the end of the day is icing on the cake. Throughout the day I am accessing sources of information not only from DTN but others in the industry who might have worked for DTN in the past or work for other firms that I've become friends with through the years. Simply put, you pick up things about the grain market that you wouldn't pick up otherwise. It is not that I am the know-all and be-all of grain markets, because I am not. As a farmer and agricultural economist, daily market intelligence for me means that I immerse myself in good information to try to make better marketing decisions.

That doesn't mean I don't make mistakes, because everybody does. In fact, in 2026 you can make the argument with the advent of artificial intelligence we have seen some denigration in our information via the internet. In fact, when we read something in 2026, we often ask ourselves is it real or not? We never used to do that to the degree we do now. So, seeking out good sources for market information is always so important -- and it needs to be done on a daily basis to keep up with what's going on.

Futures grain markets are one thing and cash grain markets are the other. Daily market intelligence on our futures markets is relatively easy but doing the same for Ontario and Quebec cash grain markets are much more difficult. In fact, I would say they're infinitesimally more difficult to gather intelligence on. I say that because many grain merchandisers keep things close to their vest and there's not a lot of good publications on cash grain movement in eastern Canada. It might be the same other places; it might not be.

However, in my mind, cash grain markets are a much more difficult exercise than simply looking at grain futures markets. When you add in the Canadian anomaly of a loonie (Canadian dollar coin) which gyrates wildly at times, it makes it so much more difficult when considering cash grain prices.

That is one reason why when I travel to speak, I often ask farmers and grain merchandisers how cash basis works in their area. In many locations, especially off the beaten track, it is key to understand how prices work.

You may have heard me quote Neil Campbell from PEI Elevators in Prince Edward Island. When I have spoken there, I grill him on how grain movement works. I do the same in Quebec when I get to go to that fine province. In Quebec, grain price transparency has always been an issue. Also, when I talk to DTN subscriber Howard Myers who farms in New Jersey, he gives me fascinating information on cash grain basis there.

At the end of the day, all of it helps me know what I'm talking about. Hopefully, it helps me sell my own grain for better prices.

So, do you have a better understanding of what "daily market intelligence" is now? Brazilian beans being a dollar less a bushel than American beans is part of that daily exercise. Some of you might make the argument that, as an agricultural economist, I just find it so interesting. You know, instead of learning something about soil health. Yes, it's true I looked through an agricultural economic lens on almost anything. However, I'm just saying "daily market intelligence" is an important thing for you as farmers and agri-business people. Get comfortable with doing it your own way. Seek out the market information on a daily basis which is insightful. You will likely benefit from it and, at the very least, you will know what I mean by "daily market intelligence." It might become a habit.

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The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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