The calendar says that we're getting close to mid-March and before you know it, we might see real signs of spring. It couldn't come fast enough for most of us still ensconced in Canadian winter. Thankfully, spring always represents hope, something that we can never have enough of in life. Unfortunately, the world is a different place now and a little spring optimism will do us all a little bit of good.

We all know why the world is a little bit of a different place now. It was only 10 days ago or so the war started with Iran. It has been pretty devastating to watch on television and, of course, I really don't have anything good to say about it. It has sent our markets into a boil, making them even harder to explain. Keep in mind there are practically no grain analysts who are military analysts. I chafe when I see some people compare price movement to specific actions on the military field. War is unpredictable and, unfortunately, the first casualty in war is truth.

We have seen a big appreciation in the cash prices for grain in Ontario and Quebec. I really don't know why, other than this war thing seemed to spook the algorithms and speculators. This situation is fluid at best; it will probably stay that way for the next several weeks or months depending on how long this war will last.

New-crop corn is approximately $6.15 a bushel in Ontario as of March 12. We have seen a rise of approximately $0.50 a bushel since mid-January 2026. We have seen a rise in the soybean price of approximately $1.20 a bushel since mid-January 2026. The prices for the old crop have risen even higher. The fundamentals tell us that there is grain everywhere. Remember that big crop of corn we had last summer? It was 17.02 billion bushels of corn, so high most of us couldn't even imagine. However, with bombs dropping across Iran and Israel, prices have been going up almost every day.

Yes, there are a lot of moving parts. As I write this, the Strait of Hormuz have been closed by the Republic of Iran. There are ships on fire in the Arabian Sea as well as the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have shot up from the $50-to-$60 range to way past $100, now settling Thursday at about $95 a barrel. This is a real price shock to everybody, and gasoline prices have risen significantly both in Canada and the United States. I won't say that nobody saw this coming, but it has been one tall drink of water. I don't know what will happen next in terms of the war and I certainly don't know what's going to happen next in terms of grain prices.

I do know that I had some long far-off market orders hit the other day and as usual in these hot times, I plan to put in some more market orders that are off the chart. I also know as a Canadian farmer I am facing a new fiscal horizon simply because fuel prices are up, and fertilizer prices are up and there may be gaps in supply. We already faced tariffs on Russian fertilizer in eastern Canada and that is something that now looks almost like the days gone by. Our industry groups like the Grain Farmers of Ontario are lobbying to get some relief from that, but in this world of uncertainty it's hard to know whether it would ever happen. As it is, we face all our production risk, and we have a world of war risk as well.

With war taking place in the Middle East, this time around I have a little bit of experience with being there. As many of you know, I travel to Asia quite often and I go through Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. I've often mused that Dubai would be a target of any type of geopolitical war event in that region. If you've never been there, Dubai is world class, brand new and sparkling as a new financial capital of that part of the world. It bridges Asia and Europe and is full of tourists throughout the region going to different parts of the globe. When I was there, I was incredibly impressed, but I also knew that Iran was a short 50 miles across the water as I stood beside the iconic hotel Al Arab, which is famously shaped as a sail. So, when I saw Russian drones explode into some of these hotels there the other day, it brought home how the world is changed and it will never be the same. Ditto for our grain markets.

As it is now, markets don't like uncertainty. Look at the oil market and then look book back at the distillates market. Then take a look at the gyrations in the stock market, as well as a big rise in soybean oil and some over other agricultural commodities. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals but very scary times for our grain trading algorithms that apparently are not dialed in to ignore all the bombs dropping amid the oil fields of the Middle East. It is quite the calamity.

Remember, as I said, truth is the first casualty of war. However, that doesn't give solace to Canadian farmers getting ready to plant. Our challenge is to make decisions in the middle of all this noise, separating what we know from what we simply think we know. The fundamentals still matter even when the headlines scream otherwise. In the meantime, it pays to keep your marketing disciplined, take advantage of these unique war pricing opportunities when they present themselves, and remember that volatility is simply the market's way of testing our resolve. War is hell. Let's hope peace breaks out soon.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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